Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
